The current economic environment is uncertain, and global prosperity is at risk. One way of measuring our success in navigating the crisis is global GDP. However, GDP does not capture everything that counts. It can increase without the poorest benefiting, and the poorest can improve their lives substantially with only modest GDP growth. Therefore, success must also be measured by progress toward the MDGs, the commitments world leaders made in 2000 to address key problems—from poverty to health to hunger—with a deadline of 2015.
Critics say the MDGs are overoptimistic, and they point to the fact that the world isn’t on track to meet all the targets by the deadline. But the MDGs provide a clear way to measure progress for the poorest, and there has been incredible progress on all the key MDGs in countries across the globe. For example, between 1990 and 2008, maternal mortality fell by more than a fifth worldwide. While that’s short of the official goal, it represents more than 1 million mothers who are alive today because of improving maternal health.
In fact, global growth is linked to the achievement of the MDGs. If poor countries can’t feed, educate, and employ people, their problems will get worse and they will be a source of instability and deep suffering. To deal with these problems, we need robust economic growth. But progress on the MDGs will also help poor countries provide real opportunities for their citizens, so that over time these countries will become a key part of the global supply and demand equation. On the supply side, they will expand global production capacity and help increase the availability and lower the price of food and other vital commodities. On the demand side, they will become important markets for global trade, as their people live better, more productive lives. If we take an appropriately long view, achieving the MDGs in poor countries and increasing GDP within the G20 are not separate goals but complementary ones.
When it comes to the innovation that has been central to both GDP growth and progress on the MDGs, the trends are in our favor. The capacity to innovate is spreading beyond the richest countries into a larger set of rapidly growing economies. As the economies of many nations have been transformed, the binary model of the developed world on one hand and the developing world on the other has become irrelevant. There is incredible diversity inside what used to be called the developing world. We must think specifically about each country travelling the development path, so we can understand the unique assets they bring to the endeavor.
With its diverse and dynamic membership, the G20 is in a phenomenal position to help us all think about development in new ways. Ultimately, the goal is to combine the world’s total resources—public, private, rich, poor, and in between—in ways that drive development forward. We need to find better ways to bring private investment into poor countries. We need to help donors keep their promises by looking for new sources of aid money. We need to reinforce the dynamism of poor countries, so they can lead their own development. Finally, we need to tap the rich experience and capacity for innovation of rapidly growing countries that have recently travelled the development path so successfully.
I am honored to have been invited to submit this report by the G20 heads of state at this summit in Cannes, and I want to thank France for keeping issues that matter to the poor at the top of the global agenda. I understand that I don’t have the same responsibilities as the leaders of the G20 governments, but I try to be realistic about the challenges you face. I hope my perspective is a positive contribution to your dialogue on how the G20 provides leadership for the world economy.
By focusing on underlying sources of strength, we can get through this crisis, continue the upward trajectory of living standards, continue to save millions of lives, and continue to lift billions of people out of poverty. We can shrink the number of impoverished countries until eventually there are zero.